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Many attempts the secret to success?

Basic probability shows that attempting to do nearly anything many times guarantees success.

It's the same concept as the probability calculation used to determine the chance of tossing a coin and getting heads 5 times in a row (1/2^5).

The chances of failing many times in a row decreases dramatically with more attempts.

Chances of failing:

  • 90% chance of failing - After 100 tries becomes nearly 0% or 0.002656139889% (0.90^100)
  • 95% chance of failing - After 200 tries becomes nearly 0% or 0.003505266625% (0.95^100)
  • 99.5% chance of failing - After 1000 tries becomes nearly 0% or 0.6653968579% (0.995^1000)
  • 99.9% chance of failing - After 5000 tries becomes nearly 0% or 0.672111196% (0.999^5000)
So this means trying nearly anything 5,000 times guarantees success!?

So there's 365 days in a year, let's see how many times you would have to attempt to do something in order to achieve by the end of the year:
  • 90% chance of failing - 1 time/day
  • 95% chance of failing - 1 time/day
  • 99.5% chance of failing - 3 times/day
  • 99.9% chance of failing - 14 times/day
I wish I  knew this before.

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